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As the tactical skirmishing begins over Chuck Hagel’s nomination to be Secretary of Defense, the short-term political calculus from 30,000 feet clearly favors Republicans: Hagel’s confirmation hearings are a potential boon for the GOP and a source of queasiness for pro-Israel Democrats, despite the historically long odds of blunting a presidential pick.
Republicans, smarting after the debacle in the House GOP caucus in the lead-up to the mini-fiscal cliff deal, are looking to notch a win on the scoreboard, while being mindful of the politics of holding up presidential prerogative on Cabinet appointees. For foreign policy wonks, it is a pivot point for a debate about the post-Bush doctrine of the Republican party.
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(PHOTOS: Chuck Hagel's career)
For Democrats, there’s a peril of crossing a re-elected president – but also the risk of backing someone who their pro-Israel and gay supporters, along with some donors, aren’t entirely comfortable with. At minimum, senators will be under pressure to extract as much from Hagel as they can before saying they’ll support him.
For the White House, the choice of Hagel gives the president a post-Susan Rice opportunity to show he’ll stick by his principles as well as offering proof that White House aides have learned the lesson of leaving appointees undefined in the current political climate. But it also embroils the president, who had capital to spend after a lopsided electoral win in November, in a potentially ugly and, some Senate Democratic aides say privately, unnecessary fight given other elements of his agenda.
And across Washington, while the conventional wisdom seems to slightly favor Hagel being confirmed, many in both parties are hedging their bets to see how the next few weeks play out.
(Also on POLITICO: Why Obama picked Hagel)
“It’s going to be a classic Beltway fight where the opponents on both sides are waging a classic [publicity] war against him,” said one Republican operative.
There are few other recent examples of a former senator – and member of an exclusive club – facing stiff opposition in confirmation hearings. One exception to the rule: John Ashcroft, who was appointed Attorney General by George W. Bush in 2000 after losing his Missouri Senate race.
“The president’s determined to have the nominee he wants in the position he wants and not…get caught up in trivial politics that don’t amount to a hill of beans,” said Democratic strategist Jonathan Prince.
(Also on POLITICO: 5 groups that could hamstring Hagel)
But the hill of beans facing Hagel could be unusually steep. Given Hagel’s status as a former senator with no natural constituency in either party, each senator has parochial concerns related to their own races to consider as they weigh a confirmation vote. Many of them didn’t like Hagel personally, not just politically, two Republican operatives pointed out.
The White House knows “this is an in-your-face pick,” said Republicans strategist Curt Anderson. “To Republicans, he’s not just a moderate Republican…it’s that he’s an apostate Republican.”
(Also on POLITICO: NJDC: We trust Hagel to heed Obama)
One Republican operative put it more bluntly: “Republicans are looking for a fight…It’s a rare gift.”
Another said, “It’s bound to help people in 2014 if they’re seen as being aggressive.”
Republicans whose seats come up in 2014 – and who don’t have much love lost for Hagel in the first place – don’t want to give fodder to potential primary challengers by casting a vote for the president’s Defense pick, whose comments about the “Jewish lobby” and Iran sanctions have been widely circulated.
