Residents evacuate their home as waves from Hurricane Sandy crash in the Caribbean Terrace neighborhood of eastern Kingston, Jamaica, on Oct. 24, 2012.
The U.S. Northeast from Washington to New England, including New York City, may be at risk from Hurricane Sandy by early next week.
Sandy, now moving north toward the Bahamas with winds of 105 miles (169 kilometers) per hour, may hit anywhere from the Mid-Atlantic states starting Oct. 28 to southern New England later in the week, depending on the track it takes, said Gary Best, a meteorologist for Hometown Forecast Services Inc. in Nashua, New Hampshire.
“A very complicated situation is going on right now,” Best said by telephone. “As it moves across the western Atlantic, it is going to encounter a dip in the jet stream. There will be a lot of energy coming in from the West and it may try to capture the storm and pull it into the U.S. coastline.”
If Sandy manages to stay on track for the Northeast, the region will be in for a powerful storm even if it isn’t a hurricane by the time it arrives. Tree-toppling winds are possible and the system will probably bring heavy rains, resulting in flooding, power outages and blocked roads.
On that path, Sandy has the potential to do millions of dollars’ worth of damage and potentially be a $1 billion-storm, said Henry Margusity, an expert senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.
Sandy crossed Jamaica yesterday and Cuba early today as it moved almost due north. The official hurricane center track, which extends out to Oct. 30, shows it curving to the northeast into the Atlantic off Florida, then turning back to the north off North Carolina.
[h=2]Storm Position[/h]The system, with Category 2-force winds, was 130 miles south of Great Exuma in the central Bahamas as of 8 a.m. New York time, according to a center advisory. It was moving north at 18 mph.
As much as 3 inches of rain may fall in Florida as Sandy passes starting late today. It is forecast to return to tropical storm strength by Oct. 30.
Best said if weather patterns draw Sandy to the U.S. coast early, it will probably strike somewhere from Maryland to Delaware about Oct. 28. If later, Sandy may go ashore closer to New York or New England from Oct. 29 to 30.
Cold air over the Appalachian Mountains may mix with the moisture and drop several inches of snow, Best said. The cities along the East Coast will probably have rain.
There is also a chance that Sandy would miss the U.S. Northeast and strike the Canadian Maritimes later in the week, he said.
[h=2]Forecasting Uncertainty[/h]Complicating the forecast is that the Atlantic Ocean off New England is unusually warm, which might allow Sandy to maintain some of its strength coming north, said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.
All this is supposed to happen four or five days from now and many things can happen by then to alter the scenario, he said.
For instance, if Sandy grows in power there is a chance that it would curve to the east away from the U.S., missing land altogether, Best said. It’s also possible that if Sandy misses, a second, weaker storm would form along the East Coast.
“No matter what, there is going to be rain,” Best said. “The question is, do we get some strong winds. If Sandy gets involved in this, there is a potential for strong winds.”
FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)’s Jersey Central Power & Light, which delivers power to 1.1 million New Jersey homes and businesses, placed employees on alert, the utility said in an Oct. 24 statement.
Exelon Corp. (EXC)’s Baltimore Gas & Electric is preparing to “execute its playbook for severe impact storms,” Chief Customer Officer Jeanette Mills said yesterday in a statement.The utility urged its 1.2 million power customers in central Maryland to prepare for power failures and flooding.
[h=2]‘Perfect Storm’[/h]Margusity said the current weather patterns have similarities to 1991’s “Perfect Storm,” in which Hurricane Grace combined with a low-pressure system off the East Coast to form a “super storm.” The story later became a book by Sebastian Junger and a movie starring George Clooney.
The storm killed at least nine people, most of whom were on the fishing boat Andrea Gail, and damaged homes along the New England coast, including former President George H.W. Bush’s in Kennebunkport, Maine, according to the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina.
A hurricane warning is in effect in eastern Cuba and for many of the islands in the Bahamas. A tropical storm watch has been posted for Florida’s east coast from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach, as well as the upper Keys from Ocean Reef to Craig Key. The watch also extends to Florida Bay.
Winds of at least 74 mph extend 25 miles from Sandy’s core, while winds of 39 mph reach out 140 miles. The distance from Freeport, Bahamas, to Fort Lauderdale, Florida, is 94 miles.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at [email protected]
