The above is true of course. If the odds were that they'd be paying out all the time, no dealer or manufacturer would ever DREAM of offering extended warantees. It's sort of like an insurance company philosophy. They are betting that you will not get in an accident or if you do, it will be a minor accident. If they gambled that you would need many payouts, they would not be selling you a policy. Either that, or the rates would be stratospheric.