Do polls ever accurately predict voter sentiment?

  • Thread starter Thread starter Bob J
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Bob J

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Here's an example: in Nevada 2004, there was an referendum on the state ballot to legalize small amounts of marijuana for personal use. Poll after poll leading up to the election showed that 70% were for legalized use. Marijuana reform advocates were certain they had a victory on their hands. Yet, come election day, 70% voted AGAINST the referendum, the complete opposite of what the polls had indicated. Reformists were devastated. But they seemed to have been ignorant to one important fact: most Americans don't vote; therefore, those you poll aren't necessarily the ones who will be casting a vote. The vast majority of those who vote are senior citizens, and they do not vote liberally. The people who were for the referendum were out dirt biking in the desert come election day.
 
Presidential polls are conducted using "likely" voters not just random people. Even when Bush beat Kerry, Bush was still within "the margin of error". McCain is currently way outside the margin of error.
 
EXACTLY.

Additionally... How were the questions asked in the poll phrased? A simple addition or subtraction or twist of a word or two and you can manipulate people in to answering in whatever way you want the propaganda to go...

It is really sad...

Polls are pointless.

Everything will happen the way it will happen and there is little chance of predicting.
 
I think you're right. A cross section of American society is not a good representation of the American voter. When I went to vote for the first time in 2000 (I was 26), I fetl like I was the only one there who was under 70! I had never seen so many old people in one place in my life. I think if you want to get accurate polls for elections, you need to only take a poll at a nursing center for the elderly---serious!
 
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