Democratic Party leaders are growing more upbeat about President Obama’s reelection prospects, but on-the-ground organizers are warning that well-funded conservative groups have developed a new level of sophistication in mobilizing voters that could give Republican nominee Mitt Romney an edge if the race is close.
Obama’s campaign has focused much of its effort on mobilizing its celebrated grass-roots network of expert organizers and neighborhood team captains. But in the key battleground states, that machinery is being challenged by a conservative coalition that includes the National Rifle Association, billionaire-backed Americans for Prosperity and a newly muscular College Republicans organization with a $16 million budget.
The conservative groups “are fully funded and ready for hand-to-hand combat,” said Steve Rosenthal, a longtime Democratic organizer.
Rosenthal is the co-founder of the Atlas Project, a group carefully tracking voter statistics and other data to help guide Democratic groups as they design precinct-level voter-outreach strategies. Rosenthal describes the Obama operation as “second to none,” but in reviewing data in recent weeks, he has grown alarmed at what he views as a successful, years-long campaign on the right that could alter the electoral landscape.
In Florida, for example, Republican legislation, since overturned in the courts, effectively dampened pro-Democratic voter registration efforts during critical months in 2011 and 2012, resulting in registration gains for Republicans in the crucial Tampa Bay area since Election Day 2008.
In Ohio, the evangelical group behind a successful anti-gay marriage amendment that helped mobilize conservative voters in 2004 claims it now has a network of 10,000 churches and a database of millions of rural voters who will be targeted with in-person visits and voter guides.
And in Wisconsin, a traditionally Democratic state, conservatives have built a house-by-house turnout machine already tested in the successful campaign to repel a union-backed recall of GOP Gov. Scott Walker in June.
Romney’s recent travails have provoked a steady stream of national media coverage raising questions about his chances in November and Obama’s widening lead in polls. But on the ground, the battle remains close and hard-fought. Experts say that if Obama’s lead in key states extends beyond a few points, even the most effective field operation on the right may not be enough to prevent a Romney loss. But, they say, the operation can add two to three points to Romney’s total and, in a close contest, that could be a significant difference.
Obama aides insist that the president’s grass-roots network will be more effective in driving voters to the polls than anything being built on the right, though they acknowledge the landscape has changed since Obama’s last campaign.
“It’s a much more robust field operation than the 2008 McCain campaign had, that’s clear,” said Jim Messina, Obama’s campaign manager. But, he added: “The other side is trying to pay to replicate what we spent years to build.”
Obama’s campaign has focused much of its effort on mobilizing its celebrated grass-roots network of expert organizers and neighborhood team captains. But in the key battleground states, that machinery is being challenged by a conservative coalition that includes the National Rifle Association, billionaire-backed Americans for Prosperity and a newly muscular College Republicans organization with a $16 million budget.
The conservative groups “are fully funded and ready for hand-to-hand combat,” said Steve Rosenthal, a longtime Democratic organizer.
Rosenthal is the co-founder of the Atlas Project, a group carefully tracking voter statistics and other data to help guide Democratic groups as they design precinct-level voter-outreach strategies. Rosenthal describes the Obama operation as “second to none,” but in reviewing data in recent weeks, he has grown alarmed at what he views as a successful, years-long campaign on the right that could alter the electoral landscape.
In Florida, for example, Republican legislation, since overturned in the courts, effectively dampened pro-Democratic voter registration efforts during critical months in 2011 and 2012, resulting in registration gains for Republicans in the crucial Tampa Bay area since Election Day 2008.
In Ohio, the evangelical group behind a successful anti-gay marriage amendment that helped mobilize conservative voters in 2004 claims it now has a network of 10,000 churches and a database of millions of rural voters who will be targeted with in-person visits and voter guides.
And in Wisconsin, a traditionally Democratic state, conservatives have built a house-by-house turnout machine already tested in the successful campaign to repel a union-backed recall of GOP Gov. Scott Walker in June.
Romney’s recent travails have provoked a steady stream of national media coverage raising questions about his chances in November and Obama’s widening lead in polls. But on the ground, the battle remains close and hard-fought. Experts say that if Obama’s lead in key states extends beyond a few points, even the most effective field operation on the right may not be enough to prevent a Romney loss. But, they say, the operation can add two to three points to Romney’s total and, in a close contest, that could be a significant difference.
Obama aides insist that the president’s grass-roots network will be more effective in driving voters to the polls than anything being built on the right, though they acknowledge the landscape has changed since Obama’s last campaign.
“It’s a much more robust field operation than the 2008 McCain campaign had, that’s clear,” said Jim Messina, Obama’s campaign manager. But, he added: “The other side is trying to pay to replicate what we spent years to build.”