A poster has been raving about access to guns equating with crime.
Let's take a closer look at that. Obviously we cannot do a direct science experiment where you take one city, wall it off, and remove all guns, then take another city, wall it off, and then dump in 10,000 free handguns.
BUT we can make some predictions of what the crime and gun law statistics SHOULD look like if that claim was true.
Let's do that. So here are the predictions we can test with. Answerers, go out and tell me how many of these are true.
IF more guns = more murders THEN...
#1a The state with the MOST restrictive gun laws should be the state that has the least murders per capita.
#1b...or at least be in the top 5 for least murders per capita
#1c...or at least be in the top 10 for least murders per capita
#2a The state with the LEAST restrictive gun laws should be the state that has the most murders per capita.
#2b...or at least be in the bottom 5 for murders per capita.
#2c...or at least be in the bottom 10 for least murders per capita
#3a The state that has the least restrictive gun control should have the MOST murders per capita.
#3b...or at least be in the top 5 for murders per capita.
#3c...or at least be in the top 10 for least murders per capita
#4a The state that has the MOST restrictive gun control should have the LEAST murders per capita.
#4b...or at least be in the bottom 5 for murders per capita
#4c...or at least be in the bottom 10 for least murders per capita
Now lets assign these points.
For every A answer that is correct, give 5 points. For every B answer that is correct, give 3 points, and for every C answer that is correct give 1 point.
If Newell's supposition is absolutely true, the score will be 40 points.
If Newell's supposition is absolutely true, but complicating factors prevents it from always being a direct correlation (most murders might be 3rd least restrictive gun laws) there should be a score of at least 15
Obviously, if this 'experiment' scores less than 10, it indicates that Newell's theory is not supported by the evidence.
Let's take a closer look at that. Obviously we cannot do a direct science experiment where you take one city, wall it off, and remove all guns, then take another city, wall it off, and then dump in 10,000 free handguns.
BUT we can make some predictions of what the crime and gun law statistics SHOULD look like if that claim was true.
Let's do that. So here are the predictions we can test with. Answerers, go out and tell me how many of these are true.
IF more guns = more murders THEN...
#1a The state with the MOST restrictive gun laws should be the state that has the least murders per capita.
#1b...or at least be in the top 5 for least murders per capita
#1c...or at least be in the top 10 for least murders per capita
#2a The state with the LEAST restrictive gun laws should be the state that has the most murders per capita.
#2b...or at least be in the bottom 5 for murders per capita.
#2c...or at least be in the bottom 10 for least murders per capita
#3a The state that has the least restrictive gun control should have the MOST murders per capita.
#3b...or at least be in the top 5 for murders per capita.
#3c...or at least be in the top 10 for least murders per capita
#4a The state that has the MOST restrictive gun control should have the LEAST murders per capita.
#4b...or at least be in the bottom 5 for murders per capita
#4c...or at least be in the bottom 10 for least murders per capita
Now lets assign these points.
For every A answer that is correct, give 5 points. For every B answer that is correct, give 3 points, and for every C answer that is correct give 1 point.
If Newell's supposition is absolutely true, the score will be 40 points.
If Newell's supposition is absolutely true, but complicating factors prevents it from always being a direct correlation (most murders might be 3rd least restrictive gun laws) there should be a score of at least 15
Obviously, if this 'experiment' scores less than 10, it indicates that Newell's theory is not supported by the evidence.