Ashley Cole
New member
Hansen's latest prediction? In “2008 Global Surface Temperature in GISS Analysis” at:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2... Hansen et al wrote, “It is conceivable that this tropical cycle could dip back into a strong La Nina, as happened, e.g., in 1975. However, for the tropical Pacific to stay in that mode for both 2009 and 2010 would require a longer La Nina phase than has existed in the past half century, so it is unlikely. Indeed, subsurface and surface tropical ocean temperatures suggest that the system is “recharged”, i.e., poised, for the next El Nino, so there is a good chance that one may occur in 2009. Global temperature anomalies tend to lag tropical anomalies by 3-6 months….
Given our expectation of the next El Nino beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance.”
Ok then - Dr. Hansen has made it clear - he thinks a new record will be set in 2009-2010.
Should the climate debate be settled on the basis of whether his prediction turns out to be accurate?
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2... Hansen et al wrote, “It is conceivable that this tropical cycle could dip back into a strong La Nina, as happened, e.g., in 1975. However, for the tropical Pacific to stay in that mode for both 2009 and 2010 would require a longer La Nina phase than has existed in the past half century, so it is unlikely. Indeed, subsurface and surface tropical ocean temperatures suggest that the system is “recharged”, i.e., poised, for the next El Nino, so there is a good chance that one may occur in 2009. Global temperature anomalies tend to lag tropical anomalies by 3-6 months….
Given our expectation of the next El Nino beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance.”
Ok then - Dr. Hansen has made it clear - he thinks a new record will be set in 2009-2010.
Should the climate debate be settled on the basis of whether his prediction turns out to be accurate?