September 6, 2012, 3:52 PM
Obama is overwhelmingly likely to win the presidential election, according to a very unscientific survey that CRT Capital Group’s bond strategists take of their readers every month. Besides asking about bond yields and the employment report, this week they asked about the election.
“We found an overwhelming support (support is not quite the right word) for an Obama win with 77% saying so,” David Ader and Ian Lyngen wrote in an email. “This was a surprise coming from what we suspect is more of a GOP supportive audience.”
“Such a win was deemed to be overwhelmingly bullish for Treasurys…fully 65% of the audience said so with only 20% saying it would be bearish and the balanced undecided. Similarly, his win was deemed a negative for stocks for 80% of our survey group.”
For commodities, the effect of an Obama win was less obvious: 54% of respondents said it would be bearish.
A Romney victory would be bearish for Treasury prices, 82% of respondents said. A full 92% said it would be good for stocks, while 90% said it would be bullish for commodities.
– Deborah Levine
Follow Political Watch on Twitter @MKTWPolitics
Follow Deborah on Twitter @dlevineMW
Obama is overwhelmingly likely to win the presidential election, according to a very unscientific survey that CRT Capital Group’s bond strategists take of their readers every month. Besides asking about bond yields and the employment report, this week they asked about the election.
“We found an overwhelming support (support is not quite the right word) for an Obama win with 77% saying so,” David Ader and Ian Lyngen wrote in an email. “This was a surprise coming from what we suspect is more of a GOP supportive audience.”
“Such a win was deemed to be overwhelmingly bullish for Treasurys…fully 65% of the audience said so with only 20% saying it would be bearish and the balanced undecided. Similarly, his win was deemed a negative for stocks for 80% of our survey group.”
For commodities, the effect of an Obama win was less obvious: 54% of respondents said it would be bearish.
A Romney victory would be bearish for Treasury prices, 82% of respondents said. A full 92% said it would be good for stocks, while 90% said it would be bullish for commodities.
– Deborah Levine
Follow Political Watch on Twitter @MKTWPolitics
Follow Deborah on Twitter @dlevineMW