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Kerry arrives in Geneva amid hopes that deal with Iran is close
By Anshel Pfeffer | Nov. 23, 2013 | 11:59 AM |
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GENEVA - The third day (Friday) in the Geneva talks (and almost certainly not the last) opened very similarly to the previous day: another meeting, fourth in this series between the Iranians and European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, after which no details were released to the public. Following this hour-long meeting, the sides went off for internal meetings.
It isn't clear at this stage if and when the Iranians and the Americans will meet. Since they sat together for an hour on Wednesday, the two haven't held another meeting.
A source close to the Iranian delegation in Geneva was trying Thursday night to convince journalists that Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif is under no pressure to sign a deal. The spin was that Zarif can go back to Tehran without an agreement and receive a hero's welcome for standing up for Iran's national pride.
The message that Iran isn't looking for an agreement at any price contains more than a pinch of psychological warfare. Whether or not Zarif goes back to Iran with a deal in hand, Hassan Rohani's government will organize an enthusiastic reception. But organizing a few thousand worked-up supporters for a photo-opportunity in the streets of Tehran is the easy part – it will be much more difficult to convince the conservative and hardline elements in the Iranian regime that the deal satisfies Iranian interests as they perceive them.
Rohani's election and the support he continues to receive from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are based on the assumption that only an articulate and friendly-looking president can save Iran from the crippling hold of the sanctions. The draft interim agreement on offer at the start of this round of talks gives Iran some easing of sanctions, mainly unfreezing Iranian assets (to the extent of up to $10 billion) and allowing Iran to import various goods, but won't alter the most severe sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil and its banking system. Rohani's rivals in Tehran will not find it hard to portray this as a rather meager yield. If Zarif returns with no sanction relief at all, it will be a deafening failure.
The world powers seem to have dismissed Iran's initial demand to ease some of the main sanctions, for they remain the main draw for the Iranians in negotiations for a comprehensive agreement, which is expected to take place in six months.
Meanwhile, the Iranians are at least trying to achieve some form of recognition of their right to enrich uranium. The talk earlier in the week of the possibility that this issue would simply be ignored in the interim agreement was replaced with a strong Iranian stance insisting on a written acknowledgement of its right to enrich uranium. This stance followed Khamenei's speech Wednesday, in which he spelled out that halting uranium enrichment is a "red line" for the regime.
The Iranian diplomats continue to smile in Geneva but they have only one and a half days left (their deadline for heading back to Tehran is Saturday night) to achieve something. The incessant way they are casting off spin and quotes to the international media, especially to the Iranian reporters, while the six world powers are strictly keeping radio-silence, attests to the intense pressure they are under.
The Americans have also tried to broadcast that they are not overly eager to reach a deal in this round of talks. A senior administration official who spoke to reporters at the start of the talks in Geneva quoted U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry as saying he "was not sending our team here with a particular expectation except that we would get down to work and try to narrow the gaps and see if we could reach an agreement" and that "we are not in a rush to just get any deal done. We want to make sure that we’ve taken the time to ensure that this is a good deal."
But Kerry and his representatives in Geneva have the Senate looming over them. If the talks fail, Tehran will certainly speak harsh words, and the Obama administration will find it hard to block the Republican-led move to put new sanctions on the regime – a move that would almost certainly prevent the return to negotiations in the foreseeable future.
It is also hard to ignore the human factor. Kerry – who, despite much advice within the administration and the State Department, decided to invest all his capital in Middle East crisis management - has so far been largely burned by deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, a dramatic reduction in America's influence over Egypt, a crisis in U.S.-Saudi relations, and a series of insults in the talks with Afghanistan on a defense agreement for the period after the American troops leave the country next year. But he considers diplomacy with Iran a top target. Ending the Geneva talks without any kind of agreement could prove to be one setback too many.
The only solution that currently seems to offer any chance of success is a creative wording over Iran's right to enrich uranium, and the talks are now focusing on this elusive magical wording. If the interim agreement is reached in the next 36 hours, Israeli and Saudi observers will no doubt pore over the various translations to prove the West gave in to the Iranians.
Kerry arrives in Geneva amid hopes that deal with Iran is close
By Anshel Pfeffer | Nov. 23, 2013 | 11:59 AM |
GENEVA - The third day (Friday) in the Geneva talks (and almost certainly not the last) opened very similarly to the previous day: another meeting, fourth in this series between the Iranians and European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, after which no details were released to the public. Following this hour-long meeting, the sides went off for internal meetings.
It isn't clear at this stage if and when the Iranians and the Americans will meet. Since they sat together for an hour on Wednesday, the two haven't held another meeting.
A source close to the Iranian delegation in Geneva was trying Thursday night to convince journalists that Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif is under no pressure to sign a deal. The spin was that Zarif can go back to Tehran without an agreement and receive a hero's welcome for standing up for Iran's national pride.
The message that Iran isn't looking for an agreement at any price contains more than a pinch of psychological warfare. Whether or not Zarif goes back to Iran with a deal in hand, Hassan Rohani's government will organize an enthusiastic reception. But organizing a few thousand worked-up supporters for a photo-opportunity in the streets of Tehran is the easy part – it will be much more difficult to convince the conservative and hardline elements in the Iranian regime that the deal satisfies Iranian interests as they perceive them.
Rohani's election and the support he continues to receive from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are based on the assumption that only an articulate and friendly-looking president can save Iran from the crippling hold of the sanctions. The draft interim agreement on offer at the start of this round of talks gives Iran some easing of sanctions, mainly unfreezing Iranian assets (to the extent of up to $10 billion) and allowing Iran to import various goods, but won't alter the most severe sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil and its banking system. Rohani's rivals in Tehran will not find it hard to portray this as a rather meager yield. If Zarif returns with no sanction relief at all, it will be a deafening failure.
The world powers seem to have dismissed Iran's initial demand to ease some of the main sanctions, for they remain the main draw for the Iranians in negotiations for a comprehensive agreement, which is expected to take place in six months.
Meanwhile, the Iranians are at least trying to achieve some form of recognition of their right to enrich uranium. The talk earlier in the week of the possibility that this issue would simply be ignored in the interim agreement was replaced with a strong Iranian stance insisting on a written acknowledgement of its right to enrich uranium. This stance followed Khamenei's speech Wednesday, in which he spelled out that halting uranium enrichment is a "red line" for the regime.
The Iranian diplomats continue to smile in Geneva but they have only one and a half days left (their deadline for heading back to Tehran is Saturday night) to achieve something. The incessant way they are casting off spin and quotes to the international media, especially to the Iranian reporters, while the six world powers are strictly keeping radio-silence, attests to the intense pressure they are under.
The Americans have also tried to broadcast that they are not overly eager to reach a deal in this round of talks. A senior administration official who spoke to reporters at the start of the talks in Geneva quoted U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry as saying he "was not sending our team here with a particular expectation except that we would get down to work and try to narrow the gaps and see if we could reach an agreement" and that "we are not in a rush to just get any deal done. We want to make sure that we’ve taken the time to ensure that this is a good deal."
But Kerry and his representatives in Geneva have the Senate looming over them. If the talks fail, Tehran will certainly speak harsh words, and the Obama administration will find it hard to block the Republican-led move to put new sanctions on the regime – a move that would almost certainly prevent the return to negotiations in the foreseeable future.
It is also hard to ignore the human factor. Kerry – who, despite much advice within the administration and the State Department, decided to invest all his capital in Middle East crisis management - has so far been largely burned by deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, a dramatic reduction in America's influence over Egypt, a crisis in U.S.-Saudi relations, and a series of insults in the talks with Afghanistan on a defense agreement for the period after the American troops leave the country next year. But he considers diplomacy with Iran a top target. Ending the Geneva talks without any kind of agreement could prove to be one setback too many.
The only solution that currently seems to offer any chance of success is a creative wording over Iran's right to enrich uranium, and the talks are now focusing on this elusive magical wording. If the interim agreement is reached in the next 36 hours, Israeli and Saudi observers will no doubt pore over the various translations to prove the West gave in to the Iranians.