- By
- SUSAN CAREY
- And
- JACK NICAS
- CONNECT
The State Department's alert Friday didn't cite any specific threats to air travel, but noted that "the potential for terrorists to attack public transportation systems and other tourist infrastructure," and pointed out that they have targeted "subway and rail systems, as well as aviation and maritime services."
The State Department regularly issues travel alerts to specific countries, sometimes around world events, such as protests in Egypt or elections in Mali. The alert on Friday warns travelers of a heightened risk during the entire month of August, saying that al Qaeda and affiliated groups are planning terrorist attacks in the Middle East, North Africa and beyond.
The U.S. rarely issues alerts that specifically warn of a terrorist attack, that affect such a large area and that specifically mention al Qaeda.
The advisory "is fairly strong," said William Daly, who heads the New York office of Control Risks Group LLC, a global consultancy specializing in political and security risk. "It suggested quite a bit of caution. Maybe the information is not specific or granular, but it's quite compelling."
Despite the scope of the warning, "very few travel alerts really impact this industry," said Richard Aboulafia, a global aviation analyst at the Teal Group. Actual events can seriously crimp travel—such as the first the Kuwait invasion or, especially, the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks, which sharply reduced air travel for several years. "I don't think you're going to see anything significant related to this [among airlines], unless something does happen," he said.
U.S. airlines make relatively few flights to the Middle East and Africa—three U.S. airlines have 217 flights scheduled from the U.S. to the Middle East in August—and investors in U.S. carriers were far from panicking Friday. Shares in most big U.S. airlines were trading down slightly Friday afternoon, although several had already fallen in early trading before the State Department's alert was issued. Around 1:45 p.m. ET, shares in Delta Air Lines Inc. were down 1% to $21.82; shares in US Airways Group Inc. were down 2% to $18.99; and shares in United Continental Holdings Inc. were up 0.3% to $35.43. Trading in shares of European airlines, which fly more to the Middle East and North Africa, had mostly ended by the time the department's alert came out.
The Middle East is a busy region for air traffic, but a huge portion of the passengers are simply stopping in the region's airports to connect on to other destinations. Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi are some of the largest transfer airports in the world.
A relatively small share of total travelers—particularly from the western world—begin or conclude their travel on the Arabian Peninsula, which the State Department highlighted as a risk in its alert on Friday.
Of the 16.9 million seats airlines are scheduled to fly to the Middle East in August, more than 80% are flown by Middle Eastern airlines.
In the past, airlines have issued travel waivers for passengers scheduled to fly to regions affected by travel alerts. By midday Friday, however, Delta, and US Airways said they still weren't offering waivers.
Guy Timberg, a U.S.-based manager for Noah Tours, an Israeli tour operator that offers trips to Egypt, Jordan and Israel for a world-wide clientele, said on Friday that the company had clients on the ground in the Middle East. But so far, he said, he and his firm hadn't heard from clients, either on trips or with bookings to travel in the region.
"These al Qaeda threats are all the time," Mr. Timberg said. "When people are traveling in Israel, they laugh at the news in the States about all these threat alerts."
Control Risks, which is based in the U.K., consults to companies on the well-being of its employees who travel, among other things. The company was telling its clients as of Friday not to cancel trips. But Mr. Daly said it was probably "a prudent option" to put off a trip until the fall if it isn't critical. If the information from the State Department becomes more specific on the target or the location, companies and their employees should react, he said.
US Airways, which flies to Tel Aviv, said it was monitoring the situation and working with appropriate law enforcement agencies. Delta, which flies to Tel Aviv and Dubai, also said it was monitoring the travel alert and any other relevant information regarding the threat.
Deutsche Lufthansa AG takes the travel warning very seriously, a spokesman for the German airline said.
But summertime isn't a high season for Middle East and North African destinations. At this time of year, Germans want to visit the U.S., and Americans tend to want to travel to Europe, the spokesman said. A typical Lufthansa flight in summer from the U.S. carries only 7% to 10% of passengers destined to connections to the Middle East. More American travelers tend to go to Middle East and North Africa in the fall.
"We haven't seen a lot of cancellations or a huge decrease in bookings," he said.
Noam Matas, owner of America Israel Travel Inc., a Calabasas, Calif., tour operator that offers trips to Biblical destinations in Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey and Greece, said he had 12 groups in the region. He said his company hadn't received a lot of inquiries from people concerned about their friends and families on the trips or from those who have future bookings. "It takes a day or two until the news kicks in," Mr. Matas said Friday. "If it continues in the news, we'll get people calling us on Monday."
Mr. Matas said he runs a popular two-week tour that starts in Egypt, goes to Jordan and ends up in Israel. Due to the unrest in Egypt, he had to cancel that portion of the tour two weeks ago, he said. He said he encourages his clients to purchase trip insurance—though political unrest isn't covered.
Issuing travel alerts are "a double-edged sword. The government is damned if they do, damned if they don't," said Douglas R. Laird, president of Laird & Associates Inc., who advises airports, governments and airlines on security.
—Jon Ostrower in Chicago contributed to this article.Write to Susan Carey at [email protected] and Jack Nicas at [email protected]
