A penny for your thoughts...on innovation.

Nectar

New member
rabroad has posted a very interesting article regarding the age old issue where big companies or market leaders are rarely innovators and it often takes "the little" company to sneak up by surprise and cause a bit of a stir.

Two excellent examples spring to mind - Sony/Palm (example below) and AMD/Intel.

My hope is that Palm finds another PalmOS license competitor soon to keep up the pressure to remain strong in the market in the name of innovation.

Your thoughts on this?
Attached below is the article or you may visit the link.
-KimH


http://www.rabroad.com/article/Don-t_Look_to_Market_Leaders_for_Real_Innovation?site=Palm

A few weeks ago, we all got a sneak peak at HP's plans for its iPAQ line. While these appear to be solid machines, none of them are particularly cutting edge. What is going to be HP's most high-end model, the hx4700, is almost identical to the Toshiba e800 which came out last fall. I read quite a few people asking, "Where's the innovation?"

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the companies that are the market leaders are rarely innovators because they don't have to be. Only when a company is trying to break into a market is it willing to take risks and make products that break the mold.

Let's take Sony for example. At the time the Palm Vx was the hottest handheld around, Sony introduced the first Clie models, which offered features similar to the Palm model. People stayed away from the Clies in droves because, given a choice between almost identical products, your average buyer would rather get the one from the market leader.

So Sony began to offer features Palm's handhelds didn't, like higher-resolution screens and audio players. Sony's share of the market quickly began to grow.

But innovation doesn't come cheap. It costs a lot to develop cutting-edge handhelds. It is also risky. Companies can sink a lot of money into creating a new model, and if it doesn't sell well, much of that money goes down the drain.

When a company is the market leader, it's a lot cheaper and safer to put out conservative products, especially when these companies know their strong brands will help sell their handhelds.

This isn't just true of HP. palmOne always trailed Sony in innovation. The Tungsten T3 was the first model the company had come out with in years that offered something that Sony hadn't had first.

Look Farther Afield
So if you want a cutting edge handheld, what you need to do should be obvious: stop waiting around for HP and palmOne to come out with your dream device and start checking out the smaller players in the market.

Although I know it is going to make some of you cringe, the first one I'd suggest you look into is Sharp. The Zaurus line is typically way ahead of anything you can get in a Palm OS or Pocket PC model. Its first VGA clamshell with dual memory card slots came out about two years ago, something no other company has managed yet.

Toshiba has shown itself to be quite innovative in the past, and ASUS and MiTAC have, too.

The thing that should concern PalmSource the most about Sony bailing out of the handheld market is that there is no obvious successor. Tapwave is just too small a company to ever be serious competition for palmOne, and most of the other Palm OS licensees are smart phone makers. It would be bad for PalmSource to return to the days when all the really innovative handhelds were Pocket PCs. It very much needs to find a big-name licensee to take Sony's place, and this company needs to realize that the way to break into the market is through offering really innovative products.
 
Boy, that sums it up -- and well.

I heard a rumor (gosh, what a shock) a couple of months ago that Steve Jobs was trying to buy PalmOne.

An influx of talent and guts like that would certainly shake things up - or if Apple tried to make a proper handheld that would indeed replace Sony.

As a proud new owner of a 2 month old USED Sony 717 digital camera, and having my eye still on the 828, I can say with no small amount of joy and surprise that SONY are indeed innovators - I think they are making the best digital cameras out there at least . . . . and it's unfortunate they "dropped out" of the PDA thing.

We have to ask WHY they dropped out, if they're rich, aggressive and doing well with their models (although some would argue that point, I guess).

I believe the handheld thing is too big an idea to just "go away;" 2 years ago I swore up and down that not only the laptop was dead, but the PC itself -- I fully imagined 8-10GB handhelds with Pentium processors in the near future.

What I and a lot of others are upset about is the Palm Operating System and its "destiny;" it's always been lean and mean and small and fast and user friendly and able to accept many developers' software products; Windows CE is still stuck in the stone age with a virtural "clear and start over" button. I hate to think of that PalmOS going away and surely to God it won't; your mention of TapWave is interesting because Palm was once the fledgling "kid" that grew up. If the DEVELOPERS get behind a product like Tapwave (and it'll make you groan but TEALPOINT are constantly tweaking their apps to better suit Tapwave), that alone could force the continutation of PalmOS OR SOMEONE ELSE taking up the cause.

Perhaps we should look for a large developer (or several merging together) developing $$$ to put out hardware - it seems to me anybody can rig up a screen, a digitizer, a battery pack and an "on" button in virutally any factory worldwide; it's the ENGINE that matters and we've got that already. A 400MHz Intel chip is fine for PalmOS should Palm discontinue altogether or someone else take up the cause.

Perhaps we should start as a GROUP actively pursuing developers and lobbying for their intent and ability to manufacture hardware in the next 12-18 months to replace any sudden "void." Personally I would be quite devastated if PalmOne went away and would even put up with less innovation as long as I've got the basic business tools I have now with the T3; someone else that's hungry could extend that considerably.

What seems to be lacking, kimh, is the feeling Computer Industry Wide that there in fact CAN BE a NEW Gates or Jobs, and that not all ideas have been "used up" or "thought of."
 
Well, as the old saying goes, you can tell the pioneers by the arrows in their backs.:) Sony did more than just innovate. They tried to steer the PDA market in the direction of becoming multimedia machines. In doing so, they were trying to create a market that didn't exist. Sony's sales of PDA's has fallen steadily over the past two years. All PDA sales are down but Sony sales were down by more than twice the decline of PalmOne or PPC machines. Sony's focus on multimedia and entertainment was a hit with some people (I've got a T665 and like the MP3 player and movie player) but the price tag was just too high for most users. IN addition, the vast majority of PDA users are not techno-geeks. They just want something that will keep their calendar and contacts and maybe be able to read an e-book or play a game occasionally. Sony's apppeal was to the techno-geek crowd and they found that that's a market that doesn't lead to long term profits.

I've seen the Sharp Zaurus touted as being the alternative to the Palm OS or PPC. I think this is exactly the same trap the Sony fell into. For Linux devotees, the Sharp is a fine machine. For the average user, it's a disaster. The bundled software for the calendar and contacts is notches below what comes standard with the Palm or PPC. Again, people who are versed in Linux can improve on the standard apps but most users want the standard apps to be sufficient and they aren't on the Sharp. If you simply look at market share tha Linux has as a PC operation and then project an even smaller subset of people who want a protable version Linux, it's hard to imagine that the Sharp is going to be a long term winner. The price alone is a big enough barrier.

I think that, like it or not, the portable information market is steadily moving towards the smartphone. Smartphones today still have a ways to go before they replace PDA's but that's where market innovations are coming from now. Give it a year or so and I think that the average PDA user will be more than happy to only carry around one device instead of two when the smartphones have the right feature set.

It's also a mistake to think that what passes on this and similar forums has anything to do with the larger PDA market. According to a survey I saw, only about 20% of all users of the Palm OS or PPC ever install any software except that that came with their machine. The people here are power users and they make up a very small share of the market.
 
Hahahaha - Jim - I have to remember that quote: "Well, as the old saying goes, you can tell the pioneers by the arrows in their backs."


Right on - the future is smartphones. The concept of carrying a PDA and a cell phone in the future is going to be a mute point. The future holds smartphones with PDA and wireless communication options.

My future prediction is that Palm will also drop out of the "classic" PDA market and eventually end up in smartphone only devices. That is where the future lies - IMHO.

I think what hurt the Sony PDA was the proprietary memory stick and the relatively "bloated" OS. While the Sony OS enhancements were innovative, the basic Palm OS is slim/fast and functions with very little resources. Most Palm users I talk to enjoy having a very simply interface and the choice of how they wish to enhance the environment is up to them with 3d party launchers, datebook managers etc....
-KimH
 
I've often thought I'd try a Sony PDA if only the installation of Sony's version of Palm Desktop didn't goof up synchronization of Palm-brand (or Handspring) PDAs and if Sony used SD instead of Memory Stick. I looked at the SL10 when it first came out and was thinking of replacing my Visor Deluxe with one, but ended up with a m125 instead.

Sony also may have broadened its PDA line too quickly. They came out with a new model almost every couple of months, it seemed, while Palm took a slower pace. I think if I'd have bought a Sony PDA I'd have soon felt I should have waited for the next one, but I haven't had that feeling with Palms.

As far as innovation goes, though, yes, Sony did push Palm--much like Handspring pushed Palm when rumors of the Visor Deluxe started. How long would Palm have continued with 2MB and no expansion slot if Handspring hadn't raised the bar? Longer than they did, I'm sure--shortly after the Visor Deluxe hit the rumor mill, the Palm IIIxe did. If Sony never put a camera in a PDA, would Palm have as soon as they did (if at all)?
 
I agree with you there I was going to get a sony this month for my birthday but after they went out of the biss. I will be getting a palmone pilot but I am going to wait for palmone to slowly to devlop a palm pilot that rocks !

BTW you double posted there if one of the mods could remove it or if you could delete it your self that would be great !
 
Do I get double pennies since this is my 2cents?

Ok,

PDA's will always be around however they will be very basic and cost less then current models. The new $149 Zire is a perfect example. When the smartphones take over, as they definitely will, then you can expect a low end color PDA for around $79 or so. These will be high end calculator / low end PDA's targeted for school kids that don't yet need a cell phone nor the expense of a $300 smartphone.

You'll see at least two levels of smartphones and perhaps three.

Level one will be basically similar to the current Treo.

Level two will be everything the Treo is and:
- BT and WiFi
- 1.3 to 2.0 megapixel camera (models without the camera would also be available).
-replaceable battery
- small foot print or similar foot print
- option for keyboardless version that will have a 320 X 480 screen resolution

Level Three:
-all of the above and GPS routing that uses either cellular towers and or true GPS reception. This will also use a speakerphone that is much better then current issue for vocal cue's during navigation modes.
- MP3 player with builtin 20GB hard drive storage dedicated for MP3 and the ability to use the phone to download the MP3's off of the net.
- two channel Blue Tooth so that a wireless headset could be used at the same time as access an automobile's wireless network or similar configuration.
-builtin laser / optical keyboard so the device could be setup via a builtin stand and then you could input for text messaging and other input via the projected keyboard that is roughly the normal size of standard QWERTY keyboard....these are being marketed now but require a seperate device.
- and of course Push To Talk which has yet to make it to a Palm device.

That may be more than my 2cent allotment or my penny allotment.


BTW - expect level 2 later this year or first quarter of '05.
 
Yeah, my browser at work hung up a little and I thought it didn't post the first time, so I hit it again. Didn't have time to check back to verify. (D'oh!)
 
Moose Man, I hope smartphones don't quite take over--I'd like to still see a plain ol' (but very capable) PDA without the phone available because a) my eyes won't take kindly to a m125-size screen anymore* and b) I can't see sticking something the size of a Tungsten E up to my ear to talk. I like my little Nokia 6610. My own 2 cents' worth is that if it's big enough to be a good PDA, it's a bit too big to be a good phone.

*Unless I resort to bifocals... (eek!)
 
I stated that PDA's will be around they'll just be very basic PDA\calculator's marketed at pre-teens that don't need the phone portion....IMHO. So yes I agree that I hope Smartphones don't take over all the way.

But less not forget that the early Palm's were bricks relative to a Treo or T3 so size will get smaller with the same screen area. The new technology fuel cell batteries might help or at least compliment a minimal battery to save on foot print.

We can keep guessing until the "cows come home" but at least it's good to voice what we want and hopefully someone of credibility is listening. :D
 
I thought it would be negative (the article); seems it just plowed through what we've been discussing but with generally optimistic "ending."

The "End of the PDA" apparently won't be for a while, then -- right? Good. I want them around and I don't want a damn phone with it.

Worst comes to worst we all get 2 spare T3s and make due!!
 
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