Based on the breakdown of its conservative and liberal wings, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule either 5-3 or 4-4 sometime before the end of June in an affirmative action case involving undergraduate admissions at the University of Texas.
A 4-4 tie would, in effect, affirm a lower court ruling that upheld the Austin flagship’s consideration of race and ethnicity. A 5-3 ruling against UT could take a few forms: a reversal of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, a decision to send the case back to that court for further review, perhaps even a wholesale rejection of the high court’s reasoning in a 2003 ruling that narrowly upheld racial and ethnic preferences at the University of Michigan.
Only eight of the nine justices are expected to vote in the Texas case because Elena Kagan has recused herself, apparently because she worked on the case when she was a lawyer for the Obama administration, which has sided with the university. Justice Anthony Kennedy, who might be the swing vote, challenged both sides with his questions and comments during oral arguments in October.
The plaintiff in the case, Abigail Fisher, a white woman who was denied admission in 2008, contends that she would have been accepted to UT but for her race. University officials counter that she would have been rejected regardless.
Under a 1997 state law, students ranking in the top 10 percent of a Texas high school class are entitled to attend any of the state’s 38 public universities. Fisher did not qualify for automatic admission and was instead considered with the remaining pool of applications under a “holistic review” that looked at race, ethnicity, family circumstances, special talents, leadership qualities, personal essays, test scores and other factors.
In 2009, lawmakers tweaked the law to give UT more flexibility in deciding whom to admit. Students have had to rank in the top 8 or 9 percent to qualify for automatic admission in recent years.
A 4-4 tie would, in effect, affirm a lower court ruling that upheld the Austin flagship’s consideration of race and ethnicity. A 5-3 ruling against UT could take a few forms: a reversal of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, a decision to send the case back to that court for further review, perhaps even a wholesale rejection of the high court’s reasoning in a 2003 ruling that narrowly upheld racial and ethnic preferences at the University of Michigan.
Only eight of the nine justices are expected to vote in the Texas case because Elena Kagan has recused herself, apparently because she worked on the case when she was a lawyer for the Obama administration, which has sided with the university. Justice Anthony Kennedy, who might be the swing vote, challenged both sides with his questions and comments during oral arguments in October.
The plaintiff in the case, Abigail Fisher, a white woman who was denied admission in 2008, contends that she would have been accepted to UT but for her race. University officials counter that she would have been rejected regardless.
Under a 1997 state law, students ranking in the top 10 percent of a Texas high school class are entitled to attend any of the state’s 38 public universities. Fisher did not qualify for automatic admission and was instead considered with the remaining pool of applications under a “holistic review” that looked at race, ethnicity, family circumstances, special talents, leadership qualities, personal essays, test scores and other factors.
In 2009, lawmakers tweaked the law to give UT more flexibility in deciding whom to admit. Students have had to rank in the top 8 or 9 percent to qualify for automatic admission in recent years.